SUNDAY AM: On Saturday, Marvel Studios' Captain America: Brave New World performed slightly better, bringing in $27.5M based on the additional ticket sales reported by Comscore overnight. Competitors are confident that we are witnessing the first $100M opening for the domestic box office in 2025, a belief shared by Disney as well. The global opening stands at $192.4M, approximately $2M more than what Nancy and I initially estimated.
For an MCU film with a B- CinemaScore, a $100 million opening is impressive. Well done, Disney.
It is clear that Disney recognized the potential of this Captain America film, even if it wasn't as universally adored as other MCU entries. Unlike some studios that might tighten their budgets in response to a B- CinemaScore, Disney invested significantly in this project. According to iSpot, the studio allocated approximately $22 million for linear spot advertisements, resulting in 926 million household TV impressions.
The Brave New World campaign focused on Anthony Mackie's Sam Wilson in the MCU, showcasing military appreciation, the involvement of Harrison Ford, and the introduction of Red Hulk.
The networks that generated the most impressions included ESPN, ABC, CBS, Fox, and NBC, featuring Brave New World advertisements during events such as NFL games, college football, ESPN's SportsCenter, the Super Bowl pregame, and Dick Clark's New Year's Rockin' Eve.
Cross-promotions for Brave New World featured Tide, which invested $8 million to create a distinctive advertisement focused on the notion that superhero activities could lead to messes, resulting in what the MCU refers to as "collateral stains." In New York City, Tide organized a "Collateral Stains Screening," allowing attendees to be among the first to view the film. The unique twist? The audience watched the movie while experiencing stains as if they were situated on the edge of the action. Following the 4D experience, guests received Tide products to help them clean their garments.
Microsoft Copilot ($693K) featured a tailored advertisement starring Danny Ramirez, in which his character, Falcon, uses the Microsoft device to enhance his wing designs.
Additional cross-promotions included McDonald's, contributing $1.3 million, American Family Insurance with $127K, and Barbasol at $9K. According to Tubular Labs, YouTube videos published by Marvel for Captain America: Brave New World have accumulated 115 million views since the previous year.
Peloton served as a promotional partner for the film, motivating its members and supporters to "Train Like a Superhero." The film's release was complemented by themed rides and classes, culminating in a live session at Peloton's studio in NYC featuring Mackie. Additionally, a custom clip from GMC highlighted the Hummer EV that appears in the film. From February 1 to April 13, Top Golf offered a Block Party experience at all locations, which included a national sweepstakes, exclusive menu items, and an upgraded golf experience.
Numerous social stunts took place, such as a drone display at Disneyland in Paris.
Additional statistics regarding Captain reveal that Imax screens, which number around 400, accounted for 10.4% of the three-day revenue, generating $9.2 million by the end of today and totaling $10.5 million through Monday. Together, PLFs and Imax are responsible for 37% of the overall business. The leading venue remains AMC Disney Springs in Orlando, which has surpassed $172,000 in earnings.
The Sony-distributed StudioCanal Paddington in Peru has seen a slight increase from the $4.2 million we observed last night, bringing the total to $13 million for the three-day period and $16 million for the four-day weekend.
The total box office for the weekend across four days for all films is estimated at $178.2 million, representing an increase of 89% compared to the same timeframe last year, when Paramount's Bob Marley: One Love topped the weekend with $33.6 million.
The figures mentioned above are all estimates from the industry and have not been reported by studios.
UPDATE: After a strong estimated $40M from Friday and previews, Disney/Marvel Studios' Captain America: Brave New World is poised to potentially exceed $100M over the 4-day weekend, according to industry estimates. The projected range for the MCU sequel's 4-day total lies between $95M and $109M. These figures are estimates, with Disney estimating a total between $90M and $96M. The studio generally waits for confirmation before declaring a $100M milestone, which they expect to have by tonight.
Should Brave New World land within the $90M-$96M range, it would be due to competitors getting enthusiastic about projecting a $100M four-day weekend following the romantic Valentine's Day. If it reaches that range, it will mark the best opening we've witnessed thus far in 2025. What studio wouldn't desire an opening of $90M-$96M or more for their film? Is there anyone? Bueller? Meanwhile, Warner Bros' costly sci-fi film Mickey 17, directed by Bong Joon Ho, is currently anticipated to debut in the high teens on March 7. The review embargo, which is lifted today after its premiere in Berlin, raises hopes that it will spark a significant box office rush from cinephiles for the Oscar-winning filmmaker's latest project.
Interestingly, while discussions of superhero fatigue are prevalent, Brave New World is performing exceptionally well, primarily because it stands as the sole major release available. However, Marvel should avoid attempting a sequel titled Captain America: Brave New World 2.
Recent exit polls for Brave New World indicate a demographic breakdown of 62% male and 38% female, with 9% of viewers aged 13-17, 20% aged 18-24, 29% aged 25-34 (the largest demographic), and 42% aged 35 and older. There is a notable diversity in attendance, with 35% identifying as Caucasian, 26% as Latino or Hispanic, 23% as Black, and 10% as Asian. Currently, PLF and IMAX screens are responsible for 37% of the weekend's revenue. The film is being shown nationwide, with AMC Disney Springs in Orlando leading the box office at $109K through Friday.
Valentine's Day, usually a significant day for box office sales, generated $66.4 million this year, with 61% of that total coming from Cap. While most films only managed to earn single-digit figures, Screen Gems/Spyglass' Heart Eyes ranked third on its second Friday, bringing in approximately the same amount as Sony/StudioCanal's Paddington did on its first Friday in Peru—$5 million. The bear is projected to earn between $16 million and $17.5 million over the four-day opening weekend, with estimates of $13.2 million to $14.4 million for the three-day period. Among all the holdovers in the top ten, Heart Eyes is expected to achieve the highest three-day percentage increase at +18% (or $9.8 million for the four-day total of $11 million), which is commendable for a horror film with a B- CinemaScore. In contrast, New Line's well-received B+ genre film Companion is anticipated to drop by -33% in its third weekend, earning around $2 million and landing in 10th place.
Paddington in Peru has received an A Cinemascore, with children under 12 rating it positively at 85% and 60% indicating it as a must-see immediately on PostTrak. Among the audience, 52% are mothers, while 17% fall within the 13-17 age range, 27% are aged 18-24, 32% represent the largest demographic of 25-34, and 24% are 35 years or older. In terms of diversity, the audience consists of 52% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 7% Black, and 14% Asian. The heartland significantly contributes to its success, with AMC Century City leading as the top multiplex in the country, having earned $13K so far.
Additionally, theaters in the Northeast remain open despite Winter Storm Jett. Furthermore, the heavy rainstorm in LA subsided rather rapidly.
Today, even mothers and children are attending matinees, benefiting from a 24% discount for K-12 students, with an additional 88% of students off on Monday according to the Comscore school calendar. As a result, StudioCanal/Sony's Paddington in Peru is projected to earn $4.5 million today, which includes $600,000 from last night. The film is expected to reach between $12 million and $13 million for the Friday to Sunday period, with a total of over $15 million for the four-day weekend across 3,890 theaters.
The third weekend for Universal/DreamWorks Animation's Dog Man brings in $2.7 million today, totaling $10 million for the weekend (a 28% drop) and a four-day total of $13 million, with a cumulative gross of $70 million.
Screen Gems/Spyglass' Heart Eyes is projected to earn over $3 million, with estimates of approximately $7 million for the 3-day weekend and around $8 million for the 4-day period across 3,102 theaters during its second weekend. The key question remains: how significant will the decline be after today? At this point, a -16% hold for the 3-day weekend is remarkable, especially for an R-rated horror film. By the end of the day on Monday, the total gross is expected to be just under $20 million.
Paddington in Peru, produced by StudioCanal/Sony, earned $600,000 yesterday. It’s important to note that this is a family film. Previews began on Thursday evening at 2 p.m. across 3,133 venues. The film achieved impressive PostTrak ratings, receiving 4 stars from general audiences and 4 1/2 stars from children under 12, along with a 94% score from critics on Rotten Tomatoes. The expectation is that the total for the four-day weekend will reach approximately $15 million.
The initial Paddington film earned $18.9 million over its first three days, while Paddington 2 brought in $11 million. According to Quorum, the threequel is projected to have a three-day total between $12 million and $15 million (update). The film has already surpassed $104 million internationally, including $19 million from Sony's overseas markets.
Earlier Report: Despite the rain in Los Angeles and snow in the Northeast, moviegoers are still flocking to theaters on Thursday night. Disney/Marvel Studios' Captain America: Brave New World, which follows the Disney+ series The Falcon and the Winter Soldier and 2008's The Incredible Hulk, is projected to earn $12 million after previews that started at 2 p.m. today.
How does that compare to other MCU films? It ranks above 2014's Captain America: Winter Soldier, which earned $10.2 million in previews before achieving a $95 million opening.
The performance of Brave New World falls short of the $17.5 million previews achieved by the last MCU release, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which earned a total of $106.1 million over the three-day weekend and $120.3 million during the four-day period in 2023. Tracking estimates suggest that Brave New World will not reach the levels of Quantumania, projecting a $80 million three-day total and $94 million for the four-day span. Positioned as a grounded action film, Brave New World does not delve into the multiverse concept, instead focusing on Red Hulk, a fitting choice for Valentine's Day.
Unfortunate news: Critics on Rotten Tomatoes expressed their dissatisfaction with the Anthony Mackie film, resulting in a 52% score. On a more positive note, audiences rated it a decent 79% on RT after Thursday night viewings. Initial PostTrak ratings from fans were mixed, averaging 3 stars, though children under 12 rated it higher at 4 1/2 stars (62% of them were boys). The audience demographic was comprised of 71% males and 29% females. In terms of diversity, 32% identified as Caucasian, 28% as Hispanic and Latino, 19% as Black, and 15% as Asian. The highest ratings came from women over 25, who gave it a 71% score, making them the second-largest demographic after men over 25, who constituted 56% of the audience and rated the Mackie film at 64%.
According to social media analytics company RelishMix, the social media presence for the movie directed by Julius Onah is just shy of 600 million, which aligns with the average for superhero films. However, Brave New World is currently performing 21% lower than the typical metrics for the genre across platforms such as TikTok, Facebook, X, YouTube, and Instagram combined. Curious about the social media reach for Deadpool and Wolverine prior to their release? It was an impressive 1.15 billion followers. Even Thor: Love & Thunder boasted a strong figure of over 963 million before it debuted, leading to a substantial $144.1 million three-day opening in July 2022.
The majority of the cast in this Captain America film is socially engaged and active, with the exception of the less social Harrison Ford. Prior to the film's release, Mackie had amassed 5.4 million fans across various platforms, Liv Tyler had 7.2 million, and Giancarlo Esposito reached 4 million.
According to RelishMix's analysis of online discussions, opinions on Captain America: Brave New World are mixed. Some fans express enthusiasm about Mackie taking over the shield from Chris Evans, especially with the impending arrival of Red Hulk. However, there is a notable amount of negative sentiment among fans who believe Marvel has lost its direction. Comments reflect this sentiment, such as, "I remember when I used to feel excitement for a Marvel movie. After seeing this poster and trailer, I felt nothing," and "I want the film to succeed, but I can’t shake the feeling that it’s being released just to fail. Prove me wrong, Disney." The shifts in tone are alienating some viewers, with one remarking, "It's crazy how this movie emphasizes the 'grizzled espionage' theme from Winter Soldier, yet also shouts 'CLAP FOR RED HULK.'" Others are cautiously skeptical about the character of Sabra, considering her connections to Israel in the comics amid the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
Stay tuned for more updates on Friday, when Brave New World premieres in 4,100 theaters, featuring 400 Imax venues, 950 Premium Large Format screens, over 2,500 3D locations, 325 D-Box/4D motion screens, and 100 ScreenX theaters.
Disney did not provide a response to Deadline regarding the projections we received this evening.
