As President Donald Trump gets ready to take office again, everyone watching Africa and those making decisions across the continent are eager to see how the new US government will handle its ties with Africa as his second term begins. With the end of the African Growth and Opportunity Act AGOA coming up soon and South Africa set to hold the G20 meeting, 2025 looks like a key year for Africa. Many people are rightly hoping for a time when trade and money become the main focus in US-Africa relations. But even though these parts of the relationship will surely get some attention, they might be moved to the background in US politics until at least the second half of the year. In the next few months, immigration is likely to be the issue that most significantly affects US-Africa relations.
Right from the start of his presidency, Trump made immigration a top priority. Since his inauguration on Monday, he has already significantly tightened US immigration measures, including several executive actions which now also declare a national emergency at the southern border. One of the first votes in the 119th Congress was to approve the Laken Riley Act—a key immigration enforcement measure with broad support from Republicans and some backing from Democrats after a tough election cycle. By early 2025, the policy trend for the United States is clear: US-Africa relations will also follow this with immigrants being the major theme in coming months over trade and investment. If the initial moves of the Trump team act like a sign, African chiefs might see that their talks with America will be influenced more by immigration issues soon.
Before, US domestic immigration enforcement was not a major issue for African leaders and policymakers in their wider relations with Washington. Over recent decades, there has been an increasing flow of Africans to the United States, and most come legally with permanent resident status. Moreover, immigrants from the largest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa have obtained some of the highest median household incomes in the country. However, there has been a significant uptick in recent years in the number of African migrants reaching the southern US border after crossing the Atlantic through various means and then using more traditional overland routes into the United States. Toward the end of Trump's first term, many articles surfaced claiming that African migrants had come to represent the new face of the border crisis in America.
Historically, there were very few African migrants at the U.S. border, so they counted as "other." But that has changed. African migration to the United States is surging, spurred by declining economic conditions in Europe and the tightening of migrant and asylum seeker regulations across European Union countries. According to The New York Times, "apprehensions of Africans at the southern border rose to 58,462 in fiscal year 2023 from 13,406 in 2022," with major sources of migration from Africa including Mauritania, Senegal, Angola, and Guinea. These are just the officially recorded numbers; quantifying illegal migration fully has always been difficult. Still, while the annual inflow of African migrants to the United States remains much less than that of Latin American migrants, their numbers are no longer negligible. Changes are being made to refugee, asylum, and immigration systems; the political atmosphere points toward a potential 2025 with an extraordinary emphasis on deportations; almost certainly, African migrants will be affected by the new administration's immigration policies.
Deportations to African nations have not dated back to yesterday, and US Immigration and Customs Enforcement has never failed to carry out removal flights to Africa. However, it was different in terms of magnitude and the political environment at that time. It is very likely that henceforth, many Africans will be deported to their countries as part of a broader plan to curtail illegal immigration. Also, Temporary Protected Status—a form of humanitarian parole—will not apply to Africans in the US because their countries cameroon, ethiopia, somalia, south sudan, and sudan are not part of the list. They will lose work authorization and protection from deportation too. Hence, any large-scale deportation plans in the US would involve African nationals too.
While African governments are preparing to meet their new counterparts in the Treasury, State, and Commerce departments of the US government, including the US trade representative to discuss AGOA and G20, they will probably realize that theUS officials who most eagerly want to interact with them right off the bat belong to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Department of Homeland Security, and US Customs and Border Protection.
His previous statements about African migrants and the general perception that he will take a more transactional approach to Africa, therefore, imply that governments on the continent, which are not keen to repatriate migrants, may find it difficult to engage with the United States in the future. This was already the case in his first term, wherein the Trump administration sanctioned Eritrea, Guinea, and Sierra Leone for not accepting deported migrants from the U.S.
For anyone keeping an eye on news in Africa, the G20 Summit and the renewal of AGOA are understandably at the forefront of plans for 2025. They offer distinct, timely, and essential opportunities to refresh trade ties as well as US-African relations. However, in the United States, domestic politics take priority over anything else. Significantly, the reauthorization of AGOA was not included in last month’s continuing resolution in Congress, despite the hard work by African diplomats and supporters of industry. In today’s political climate in Washington, there seems to be no appetite to push forward this important piece of legislation on trade and investment with Africa, while there is massive political will on immigration policy.
Good or bad, immigration will be the main point of US policy in the early part of Trump's second term and this focus is likely to affect how the United States talks with African countries. As more African migrants in the US keep rising, it cannot be avoided that the talk about immigration will help shape bigger ties between the US and Africa.
There will be relations between the US and Africa in terms of trade and finance, but this will be after the US immigration policy and its implications are understood.
Alexander Tripp works as an assistant director at the Africa Center of the Atlantic Council.
On Inauguration Day, January 20, 2025, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington U.S. President Donald Trump signs documents pertaining to executive orders and pardons for people involved in the January 6 events REUTERS/Carlos Barria.
